We’ve got a pretty incredible race to the finish line developing here, folks!

With one week left in the regular season, the standings look like this:

Team Wins Losses Ties
Blue 3 0 1 10
Vikings 3 0 1 10
Green 1 1 2 5
Orange 1 3 0 3
Red Tide 1 3 0 3
Black 1 3 0 3

This week’s schedule is here:

2/14 6:30 Orange Black
7:45 Red Green
8:45 White Blue

Here is a break down on Goal Differential from this league so far (more on why this is important below):

Goal Differential For Against Total GD
Blue 36 12 24
White 30 7 23
Green 22 21 1
Orange 16 23 -7
Red 9 22 -13
Black 9 30 -21

Tie Breakers Per League Rules

Tie Breakers:

1)  Head-to-head
2)  Total goal differential
3)  Total goals scored
4)  Coin flip

There are a bunch of possibilities for change, since we’ve got more than a few ties currently in game points.

1 & 2 Seed

1st and 2nd seed (and therefore a bye in the first week) are locked up, but Blue and The Vikings play Sunday to determine who claims which slot. They’re currently deadlocked with 10 points apiece. In the event of a tie, goal differential become the tie break since head to head solves nothing (they just tied), Blue takes the 1 seed (+24) and White takes 2 seed (+23).

3 Seed AKA The Big Mess

The race for 3rd seed is wide open, with Green being the only team that can win and seal the deal for themselves. A Green win puts them firmly in 3rd place with 8 points, and uncatchable by everyone below them.

A Red win throws everything in to chaos, with Red and the winner of Orange vs. Black tied for 3rd place. In this event, Orange beats Red (head to head, h2h) or Black beats Green (h2h)

A Green/Red tie leads to another tiebreak between the winner of Orange/Black and Green, both with 6 points. In the event of that, Green trumps Orange due to head to head (h2h) and Black trumps Green (also h2h) and takes 3rd place.

Summary

Blue and White playing for 1 seed (both with 10 points), winner take all. In the event of a tie, Blue takes 1 and White takes 2.

Green win gets them outright 3nd place.

Green and Red Tie: if Black beats Orange, Black is 3rd place, Green is 4th (due to head to head win for Black over Green). If Orange beats Black, Green is 3rd place, Orange is 4th (due to head to head win for Green over Orange).

A Green loss drops them to 5th seed. They cannot end up in 6th.

Whichever teams take a loss this week between Black, Red, and Orange head to head will decide who ranks where at the bottom.

Black beat: (none of the 3 teams here, and will have lost to Orange). A loss this week by Black guarantees the 6th seed.

Red beat: Black. So a Black and Red loss results in Red 5th and Black 6th.

Orange beat: Red. Orange is playing Black this week, so if Red and Orange both lose, Orange is the 5th seed and Red is the 6th due to head to head.

Confused? Me too.